From Semi Finals - Into the Finals

ICC World Cricket Cup 2011 has reached it's climax. NZ and SL will fight it out tomorrow in Colombo while PAK and IND will slug it out in Mohali, day after.

SL is considered the favorite to win the first semi final comfortably, while IND is expected come through after a tense fight. My earlier predictions were proved mostly wrong. BD didn't come into quarters, AUS didn't come into Semis and SA didn't come into Semis either. With that kind of a success rate, I should not venture into the prediction business again!

It will be good for the Cricket to have a SL vs Ind final. After all, these were the two teams who were favorites at the start. Ranked number 2 and 3 in the world (top rank team, defending champ, AUS is now gone out of the tournament). In subcontinent conditions, I think most will agree that the best two teams are in the finals if that were to happen. Of course PAK supporters will disagree here. In fact I think they at least have 40% of chance to beat the strong Indian team.

If we omit unpredictables and special events (such as a brilliancy from a single player deciding the match, toss playing a vital role etc). India is the stronger and hence more likely team to win in the semi. However I'm still little doubtful on their ability to hold the nerve in a crunch situation mainly due to the fanatic nature and huge expectations of billions of Indian fans, PAK might see an opportunity there. This applies to SL vs NZ as well..... One certainly can not rule out an upset(s) in the semi's

Anyway, at the moment it looks like a Ind vs SL final. Who would win that one ? When you compare team strengths head to head, it is easy to figure that IND is stronger in batting line up while SL is stronger in bowling. SL was considered (once) as a better fielding side than India, but not anymore after the 4 easy catches they dropped in the quarter finals against England!

So it looks close!

India will have additional pressure in front of home crowd and SL will feel bit relaxed with the underdog tag. In a huge match like this where team strengths are more or less even. It will all come down into three factors.

1) Who will win the toss
2) Who will manage to keep their heads normal under pressure.
3) Individual brilliancies, players who can win matches alone. (Sachin, Sehvag, Yuvraj, Khan for India. Malinga, Murali, Mendis, Dilshan, Sanga for SL)

Whats' your pick ?

World Cup is upon is!

2011 ICC World Cup. Who will win it this time ?

In the last presidential and general elections in SL, I had few predictions but didn't dare publishing them. Ironically, final results came very close to my predictions and I'm determined not to do the same mistake this time.

Besides, there is really nothing to loose by having a go and let the world know what your 'predictions' are. If they work, you may get some attention/recognition/glory/nothing at all or whatever. If not, you will be just like what you are right now. see, nothing to loose at all!

Many say India and Sri Lanka are the favorites. Really one doesn't need to be genius or an expert in cricket to say that, it's just obvious. India and Sri Lanka has to be among favorites, beside rankings and recent form, most of matches they play will be on their home grounds!

However, here is my prediction on India.

1) India will not be in Finals!

There, I said it...

Reasoning ? well, it's not a difficult one either if one look into history. India is not well known for putting up with the extra large pressure and expectations put up by billions of Indian fans. If one looks at their current team, it has many stalwarts at key places on whom the team relies upon. Tendulkar, Sehvag, Dhoni, Harbajan, Zaheer Khan, Yuvraj etc. These players were the backbone of many Indian teams before this tournament, unfortunately, they don't have a good track record of (while offering a mild apology to Tendulkar) putting up with the pressure put up by home crowd. There is simply more chance for the same things to happen again.....

On the record sheet and statistics India are on top. psychologically, billion fans and billion expectations (and the little bit of extra pressure generated by the knowledge that their houses will be stoned and burnt by the 'loving' fans in case of poor performance) would be too much for them.

hmm.. what about Sri Lanka ?

Champions in 96, semi finalists in 2003, finalists and runner up in 2007.. although that look good on paper, Sri Lanka has had a little problem of winning big matches since late 90's. apart from above mentioned 2003, 2007 campaigns, they lost another worldcup final (20-20 format, against Pakistan). I think Sri lanka will come to finals but I'm not putting my money on what will happen in the finals. It could be any man's game at that stage....

2) SL will be in Finals

Dark Horse : it is funny to see the Kangaroo as the dark horse. After all, AUS are the current champions and number one ranked, continuously champions since 2000! Still, not many are rating them among hot favorites considering their recent form and subcontinent conditions. However I think AUS are pretty underrated. If one compare the current squad with the winning squad in 2007, many faces are still there. Ponting, Clarke, Hussy, Lee, Watson are players who can win matches.

3) AUS will be in Semi Finals (at least, and a likely candidate for finals)

SA has acquired a reputation as a side haunted by bad luck in world cups. However, there is an end to everything, likewise this haunting too has a place it should eventually end. Mr Smith has a very competent side with him which recently managed to mauld India.

4) SA will be in Semi Finals. (at least, and a likely candidate for finals)

Many rate ENG as a top side in world cricket these days. Indeed their fast ascend in the ranking ladder and the recent results are very impressive. Yet, I'm not totally convinced. Their recent drubbing at the hands of out of form australians in australia reminded us of old England. More importantly I feel this England team is not tested enough in subcontinent pitches yet. (despite noting that they have a world class spinner in Swann) Also, most of their team members havnt proved them selves in the subcontinet. (yet)

5) ENG will not be in Semi Finals

One last prediction :

6) BA will be in Quarter finals! (this is the riskiest prediction yet and I think as the one which is most likely to backfire on me, yet I will say this) most probably, at the expense of WI.

Let's see how many of these will come true!

I guess most of you have already figured out which team I'm supporting my self.

Go Lions !