Super Capacitors (SC) and Electric Vehicles - Where things stand AT THE MOMENT

Super Capacitors (or Ultra Capacitors or Gold Cap) is a promising field and might replace lithium like batteries in the future. However, Current status of technology and material will have to improve further. Here are some quick comparisons.

1) Cost for 1kwh of Li-ion battery is now around $200 (predicted to come down further). In comparison, SC is in the range of $1000 - $2000

2) Energy density, charge which could be held in 1kg of the battery is about 20 times lower for SC when compared with Li-ion batteries, this is expected to improve but even the most optimistic analysts say it would take at least 5-6 years for SC to come to the level of Li-ion batteries. Commercial production and wide availability in the market, and adoption might take even more years.

3) Even if number 2 above is managed and developed, still SC needs more space. Roughly it will take about 30% more space than a conventional battery.

4) Main advantage of SC is it's ability to quickly charge. However, To charge quickly, SC alone is not enough. A grid connection which is capable of giving that high power is also required.

5) Super capacitors do not use expensive or rare materials. They also have long life and can operate for many cycles. However, not that suitable to keep a current for a long time as there is a loss over time. There has been some improvement on this lately.

6) Despite above problems, SC is already in use. For instance in Shanghai, public electric buses. They need charging in each stop but that charging is quick. Run by government funds. To get the costs down and fit these to cars enabling the range and making it commercially viable is a challenge to be overcome in the future.

7) Worlds best minds and big companies are working on these problems and we can monitor progress and breakthroughs as they happen, on the internet.

Considering all above aspects, current status of the technology and future trends, estimates and predictions, it is my humble opinion that SC will not produce a solution in time for our current EV battery problem in Sri Lanka. [I could be wrong and there also is the possibility (rare but not 0) of an unexpected technological breakthrough happening any time.]

Sometimes people who even lack basic O/L science knowledge (due to that very reason) come up with amazing claims of technological breakthroughs. Cars powered by water, (making hydrogen out of water inside the car and then using it to run it for instance. This is basically due to lack of knowledge in energy conservation theory), a tiny solar panel on roof providing power to a LEAF etc.

Why these claims gain such huge traction in our society? I think the reason is media personnel are not adequately educated in science. If that was the case, most these would not even get published in national newspapers in the first place. (See this hilarious reporting for an example: https://www.facebook.com/ashoka.ekanayaka.3/posts/10155204457526222)

When people are desperate, they tend to grab on to any solution, which provides the background on which some people thrive.

Some people just want short term publicity and quick cash. Very similar to our politicians in nature. How many politicians and leaders we have who have left a long term legacy and achievement behind them? Very few indeed. Most others just provide entertainment for media which would last for 2-3 days and that's how they keep their followers going and survive. When a long term vision is absent, short term gimmicks emerge to fill that vacuum.

This is not to belittle any true Sri Lankan inventors. We have so many of them and they are not adequately appreciated, used or encouraged. At the same time, we also have some crooks.

Let's be knowledgeable and open-minded!

Electric Vehicles in Sri Lanka - Critical Numbers needed for sustainability

Part 1 of this post presented some statistics from Green Frontiers automated fast charging records. 

This post is about some analysis and few key numbers which we need to achieve if EVs are to be sustainable in here. When we have a goal, backed up by statistics, numbers and analysis, we could think about practical ways of getting to it.

Those who missed the first post can find it in here. It would be helpful to read the numbers in that article first.

There is no promise these numbers (which we are about to calculate) would magically appear in our country. It is just that EVs will at least survive if these numbers are met. All these numbers are inter dependent, we will not get one number if we fail in others.

EVs in here had different and changing challenges from start in 2015 to now. 

Initially it was lack of fast chargers, membership fees and the range anxiety. Then in mid 2016 it changed to minor issues of lack of faster charging speeds, apps and automation, facilities at charging stations etc. As a community, all of us managed to overcome and improve on each of those. By 2017, it was clear that the main obstacle for the progress of EVs is the government import tax, as no new vehicles were arriving in numbers. 

That last problem is still very much there, however it has now overtaken by an even bigger and immediate issue of battery degradation and replacements. As things stands now, even if the government reduces the EV tax tomorrow (which will not happen), it is doubtful how many would buy one given the battery replacement problem hasn't been answered yet.

So let us start our number game with battery prices. What could be the realistic and best battery price we can hope to get? for a brand new and 30kw battery.

1) Brand new 30KW battery price 
I think that fair number we should aim is around Rs 1m (or $5000). However we have work to do to achieve that, more on that later. First, let us find how this number came about.

According to current market research and predictions Li-ion battery pack prices (standard market prices, without going after particular expensive brand names) are coming down towards $150 per kwh this year. Expected to be below $100 before 2025. Assuming Rupee will be below 200 per $ when the prices hit $150, that gives us Rs 30000 per kwh and that's below Rs 900 000 per 30kw, add shipping and taxes and prices can remain around 1m. 

This is justifiable in yet another angle as well. It is usually being said that the 1/3 of the electric car's cost and weight is it's battery. Most of us have bought our cars around 3m. What this also mean is that a price higher than this will not make sense to many users in here and will not help towards popularizing EVs.

Note however, this is the price for Brand New, and 30KW. This price will then set suitable market price upper limits for used batteries. 

Currently, there are not many avenues for us to get our hands on a brand new battery. This is partly due to us relying on the original manufacturer and a particular brand. Above mentioned global market prices are not that valid if we limit ourselves to a specific brand name. So the scope and focus should be towards open standards and specification/technology/battery chemistry driven solutions than towards brand names which would just add to the cost and put additional restrictions on us. (having to go through the sole agent for instance)

What are those specification driven approaches, why 30KW and not 24KW etc are interesting subjects to discuss and require longer explanations, I will perhaps do that on a separate post and not in here to keep the length of this post to a sane level.

2) Number of battery assembling workshops/personal and importing/installing places

As we have shown at other places, we will have to face the challenge of replacing around 4000 LEAF batteries in around 4 years starting from this year. That is around 3 batteries every day! Battery replacing with a used one could be done quickly but it does not likely that there will be enough damaged new cars in Japan to provide us with a steady source of used (but good and new) branded batteries. There are legal limits also. While we should encourage that solution, we also need to prepare for the eventual worse case scenario. Most of us are simply not going to find a good used battery. 

To replace 4000 batteries, we will have to assemble most of that number in here. Assembling modules is a time taking activity. Once again, I will not go into too much details in here but hoping to cover that in a dedicated post for batteries. For now, lets just say that we may need around 20 small workshops island wide to meet that demand.

Since this is the most critical issue gripping us all at the moment, most of other numbers in this post will actually depend on how successful we will be at making this particular number. Luckily, there is a way to achieve this! A sure fire way which will then help us achieve all other numbers as well and make the EVs stay and thrive in here for good. It is not going to be an easy one but a worthwhile one.... 

Anyway, that is a topic for a different lengthy post.....  Now, first things first. Let's get the rest of numbers.

3) Fast charging rate (How many Rs per kWh)
Any government will (after elections) have to increase the cost of electricity.  I think the highest rate for domestic would be Rs 50 per unit, currently it is at 45. Mostly that would then be the cost for someone to charge their car at home. In last post we saw, EVs are going outstations less and less and the average mileage they run per day is either already very low or going down. This is no way for promoting EVs or getting the benefits of EVs. This also is very bad for fast charging infrastructure. 

In order to encourage vehicles to drive more, get rid of range anxiety and also to get them to visit fast chargers often, we will eventually have to make the Charging cost at the same rate as domestic electricity cost. Rs 50/= This does not mean it will actually happen in the short term, infact, Current rates (Rs 60-100 at the moment depending on location and network) might even go up in the short term. However, 50 is the best number for users and more users mean more business for charging stations.

This is why the numbers in this list is important. All these numbers are dependent on each other. While charging rate can not come down on its own, it can come down if the other numbers align right. That would be a win-win situation for all. 

4) What is the minimum number of EVs we need in here to feel safe. (critical mass)
Current number of EVs in the country is not big enough for new investors to come in or to initiate new solutions/services/experiments. However, still we are making ourselves heard, got few vital services going and putting up a fight to survive. Most these issues going to turn for better if the vehicle numbers are bit higher than they are now. 10 000 is that critical mass I think. Of course it's good if there are even more of them but 10K will start to make things happen. Fast charging for instance can get profitable if the vehicle numbers are twice as they are now.

That nice and round five digit number will also see few more organizations investing in the EV industry and eco system.

5) Electricity cost for Fast Charging
To Make Rs50 charge rate possible, just having 10K vehicles is not enough, electricity costs need to be sensible. Currently there is a legal basis to provide fast charging stations with i1 industrial tariff which is normally about Rs 13 per kWh. However, our of about 20 running stations we have only 2 have got this tariff so far. That's the gap between policy and practice in the country! This need to be improved at the decision making level. 

High electricity cost is a killer for EVs and that much is well known. 

EV users also have a responsibility in here, We need to contribute in generating as much electricity as we can (home solar systems) and we need to charge at off peak times.

6) How many fast charging stations we need in the island.
Earlier we said the initial number of vehicles we would like to have is 10 000, so this question get reworded as how many fast chargers do we need to serve 10 000 cars. According to stats from last post, only a fraction of vehicles are using fast chargers and only a fraction of that using charging stations regularly. Currently we have around 40 working stations island wide as a country. Some of those are struggling to survive. While we may like to have as many stations as possible, having too many stations is not optimal. It could make all to incur losses and then the familiar issues of lack of repairs, upgrades, closures etc 

It's my estimate that for 10 000 total vehicles, 60 fast chargers is enough. When the vehicle count rises, then we will have a case for more.

7) What should be the ideal investment of a 30KW fast charger
In order to meet Rs50 charging rate, having 10000 vehicles and having Industrial tariff, are again not enough. Biggest issue of fast charging is the cost of the charger and Return Of Investment (ROI). 

When we started we brought down 30KW fast charger cost to around 1.3m (from 2m and above). Even this cost is too much since ROI then typically is around two years in main cities but can be considerably more than that in outstations. While we encourage different business models for outstation charge centers (such as using the charger as a support service to a existing other business), charger investment cost need to come down if we are to push for Rs 50 rate and more and more EV journeys and miles. 

When the technology improves prices always come down. Computers, electric vehicles, batteries for example. Similarly fast charger cost also has to come down. When it eventually comes down to Rs 1m mark, we will see many willing investors and even existing investors will go for upgrades, replacements.

In case of a imported fast charger, one has to deal with shipping and taxes as well so the price cost may have to be below $5000. For locally made chargers it will have to come to the mark of Rs 1m. This would mean more sales, more upgrades, more charging and will fit in well with the bigger picture. 

8) What's ideal vehicle price
About 3000 Nissan Leaf cars have come to the country in a space of 6 months in the later part of 2015. Vehicle price was around 2.5m to 3m in those days. Some users Even paid close to 3.5m happily when the car had a favorable public opinion. 

So, if we assume the other numbers in the list are there, then people would be happy to pay around Rs 4m today (adjusting for inflation since 2016) for a high end electric car like the LEAF. It has to be a 3 year old previous model, reconditioned car of course to fit into that budget. Prices close to Rs 5m mean that they are simply out of reach for most of middle class in here and hence will fail to make a noticeable impact on larger society and country. So the taxes will have to come down for 3 year old cars.

This could mean a mid range EV would do well for 3m and a low end one for around 2m. This is also a good space for a creative local manufacturer to fit in!  It is difficult to say anything more than that with any level of assurance because vehicle prices depend on so many things, personal preferences, support, reputation of the dealer etc... 

So, there we have it, 8 magic numbers! 

$5000 brand new battery, 20 battery replacement/assembling places, Rs 50 per unit fast charging, 10 000 vehicles, Rs 13 electricity cost for fast charging stations, 60 fast charging stations and Rs 1m priced 30KW charger. (Rs 4m LEAF would be nice too!)

Little more than just a wish list... We will need these or similar numbers for EVs to thrive in here and to pass that point of no return for adaption. Currently we are far away from these numbers so we have all these present problems and are facing immediate survival challenges.

I owe you more explanations for first two items regarding batteries, how to achieve those, plans and more details. 

We can do this if we are prepared to act! 

Let's meet again in the next post to discuss just that.

Similar posts on EVs - 
Business Model differences between a fuel station and a charging station
Outlook the future of electric vehicles in Sri Lanka

Some statistics, numbers and predictions on electric vehicles in Sri Lanka

We thought of sharing some of interesting fast charging statistics and numbers we have in the Green Frontiers network during last two years. We hope these will be useful for those who are in the EV field involving in services of fast charging, manufacture, software/hardware development and investments etc as well as those who are interested in involving in those activities in future.

Any questions and further information, request in the comment section of this blog. (It would be easier for us to answer and provide further information in one place, thanks!)

Statistics are mainly limited to automated stations since the automation began in them. No personal info is used or shared with anyone, only the general statistics, so there can be no privacy violation issues.

Based on these numbers, we will also try to do some predictions on some future aspects of electric vehicles in the country.

First of all, let's start with something simple and obvious. What do you think the day of the week where the most charging happens ? Turns out (as you may suspect) it is Saturday. Friday is a close second and the Sunday is a very close 3rd. Thursday seems to be the day least amount of fast charging happens. No surprises there.

What is the most charging month and the least? again, not surprisingly December, April and August. School holidays obviously has a part to play in that. Months immediately preceding these months seems to be the months with lowest amount of charging.

Now to a surprise finding. On earlier occasions we have said that out of 5000 or so electric vehicles in Sri Lanka only 2000 or less are coming to fast charging stations. What is the distribution of these users are like... How many of them are regularly visiting charging stations, say more than once a week ? how many of them are visiting less than once a month etc. Here, we have considered station by station. How many days after a visitor would be visiting again the same station.

Turns out around 90% of users visit the same charging station less than once a month! While there are regular users, most of users are rare and irregular visitors. Combined with the earlier section, this may mean that most of EVs are used rarely for long distance travel and those mostly happen in school holiday months. Looks like unless going on a trip or some special occasion (an event happens once in few months), most vehicles only do short distance travels. 

This could mean that our number of 5000 vehicles in the country is actually not that meaningful. Most of those 5000 cars are not used anywhere close to their potential. Total mileage wise, EV usage could be far smaller than we would think. We are studying these numbers in detail to understand more. Unfortunately this analysis can be done only for stations which are operated only by automation, with no amount of manual (operator assisting) charging. So the sample data sizes are small to feel entirely confident about this number.

Another metric is the average number of units charged in a session. In 2016, on average a charging session was like 8 units. This has now gone down below 6. This again indicates that vehicles run more and more short distances and also may reflect the fact that they now have degraded batteries. Not so good signs one would think...

This got us thinking. In an ideal situation... in terms of sustaining the industry, encouraging highest possible number of cars to take long distance travel and charging, affordable battery solutions etc. What would be the critical numbers and parameters needed for EV industry in Sri Lanka to be sustainable and stable ?

Numbers such as these: Charging rate for 1kwh (currently it is Rs 60 - 100, depending on the location and network), How many charging stations in minimum we should have in the country, How many EVs we should have in the minimum (critical mass) to get things going and stable. What should be the cost of a 30KW fast charger where we would see investors would start to feel more willing, What should be the electricity cost for charging, and finally the most interesting one: How many battery replacing/assembling services/personal we would need in the country to sustain that number of vehicles. What should be the cost of a brand new (or near brand new quality) battery?

What numbers for above will make EV industry in here self sustainable, surviving and comfortable...

Let us know your thoughts... based on our analysis, we have some ideas and figures. Will share in the next post.