Some statistics, numbers and predictions on electric vehicles in Sri Lanka

We thought of sharing some of interesting fast charging statistics and numbers we have in the Green Frontiers network during last two years. We hope these will be useful for those who are in the EV field involving in services of fast charging, manufacture, software/hardware development and investments etc as well as those who are interested in involving in those activities in future.

Any questions and further information, request in the comment section of this blog. (It would be easier for us to answer and provide further information in one place, thanks!)

Statistics are mainly limited to automated stations since the automation began in them. No personal info is used or shared with anyone, only the general statistics, so there can be no privacy violation issues.

Based on these numbers, we will also try to do some predictions on some future aspects of electric vehicles in the country.

First of all, let's start with something simple and obvious. What do you think the day of the week where the most charging happens ? Turns out (as you may suspect) it is Saturday. Friday is a close second and the Sunday is a very close 3rd. Thursday seems to be the day least amount of fast charging happens. No surprises there.

What is the most charging month and the least? again, not surprisingly December, April and August. School holidays obviously has a part to play in that. Months immediately preceding these months seems to be the months with lowest amount of charging.

Now to a surprise finding. On earlier occasions we have said that out of 5000 or so electric vehicles in Sri Lanka only 2000 or less are coming to fast charging stations. What is the distribution of these users are like... How many of them are regularly visiting charging stations, say more than once a week ? how many of them are visiting less than once a month etc. Here, we have considered station by station. How many days after a visitor would be visiting again the same station.

Turns out around 90% of users visit the same charging station less than once a month! While there are regular users, most of users are rare and irregular visitors. Combined with the earlier section, this may mean that most of EVs are used rarely for long distance travel and those mostly happen in school holiday months. Looks like unless going on a trip or some special occasion (an event happens once in few months), most vehicles only do short distance travels. 

This could mean that our number of 5000 vehicles in the country is actually not that meaningful. Most of those 5000 cars are not used anywhere close to their potential. Total mileage wise, EV usage could be far smaller than we would think. We are studying these numbers in detail to understand more. Unfortunately this analysis can be done only for stations which are operated only by automation, with no amount of manual (operator assisting) charging. So the sample data sizes are small to feel entirely confident about this number.

Another metric is the average number of units charged in a session. In 2016, on average a charging session was like 8 units. This has now gone down below 6. This again indicates that vehicles run more and more short distances and also may reflect the fact that they now have degraded batteries. Not so good signs one would think...

This got us thinking. In an ideal situation... in terms of sustaining the industry, encouraging highest possible number of cars to take long distance travel and charging, affordable battery solutions etc. What would be the critical numbers and parameters needed for EV industry in Sri Lanka to be sustainable and stable ?

Numbers such as these: Charging rate for 1kwh (currently it is Rs 60 - 100, depending on the location and network), How many charging stations in minimum we should have in the country, How many EVs we should have in the minimum (critical mass) to get things going and stable. What should be the cost of a 30KW fast charger where we would see investors would start to feel more willing, What should be the electricity cost for charging, and finally the most interesting one: How many battery replacing/assembling services/personal we would need in the country to sustain that number of vehicles. What should be the cost of a brand new (or near brand new quality) battery?

What numbers for above will make EV industry in here self sustainable, surviving and comfortable...

Let us know your thoughts... based on our analysis, we have some ideas and figures. Will share in the next post.