Post-Mortem on World Cup Final

This blog is getting increasingly like a cricket blog, which was not my intention at all. So for all those who are not much into Cricket, I do apologize a bit and promise that there won't be a cricket post for a while AFTER THIS. Really and seriously....

At the same time, I do hope it will be OK by all to bare with me for one last cricket post. After all, a world cup comes only once in 4 years and a world cup with our team in the finals has happened only twice for the whole 10 000 or so history of "modern" human civilization! Surely, no harm giving some coverage to such a rare event ?

Now then, back to the finals.... As so many people in this country keep asking, "what happened to SL team? why did Sri Lanka loose ?" Well, first of all, India and SL both teams were at least equally likely to win and India was the tournament favorites and the final was played there under conditions which are more suitable and familiar to them. In that light, even the very question "why SL lost ?" become less important as it shouldn't be a much of a surprise to many. It just was one of 2 equally likely out comes to happen. So, cool down......... Nothing wrong in an Indian victory. They were a good team too and certainly the better team on that night.

However, SL did win the toss. Courageously (after loosing the way early) posted a imposing target of 275 . What's more, SL bowlers (Malinga) dismissed both high profile Indian openers early. Therefore we can ask the same question little bit more specifically. Why (and how) SL lost after getting India into 31 for 2 wickets ? Now, that's an interesting question indeed! We have heard so many cricket pundits voiced their opinion on this and heard many theories, so much so that this topic already sounds like old news.

Surely, everything which need to be discussed is already discussed and done with, right ? Since all experts have already given their verdicts and we have already made up our minds and are happy with runners up, not much point going over this again right ? What more can laymen like us add new into this discussion ?

Well, all those are very valid points and I don't have a convincing argument to even to make you read rest of the article (or for me to write the rest in the first place!). Yet, I do think some of verdicts people have given and some of expert comments on this are utterly non sense. Some real issues and reasons were never discussed in my mind. So here we go .........

First of all, few off the mark (according to me) reasons as to why SL lost.

1) SL could have taken at least 350 to stop the strong Indian batting line up. (275 was not enough)

This argument really came only after Sanga did his diplomatic and sporty comments to the press after the game. (hats off to that speech, he had to say something graceful like that in front of the press after losing the world cup final. One has to praise the winning team and give the due credit to their batters, thats the sensible way of handling the press after all, and Sanga being a skillful lawyer himself, knows it better than you and me!) However, during the first 3 quarters of the game I heard no one saying 275 is not enough! This was a world cup final, Indians were playing under pressure in front of their crowd. They were playing under lights. If all those were not enough, consider this : Tendulkar and Sehvag both were already back in the pavilion well before even the start of bowling power play!

Do you really believe SL batters haven't put a decent score to defend ? SL was considered to be possessing the strongest bowling attack in the tournament. 275 was enough to win! (it was only made to look smaller, ore on that later) that was not the reason why SL lost. At least it alone can not explain the SL defeat after putting India on 31 for 2 at one stage!


2) Choosing Kapugedara over Chamara Silva and/or Kulasekara over Rangana Herath.

This is not it either. After injury to Matthews, SL was forced to pick the other all rounder Thisara Perera. But he was not enough replacement for Matthews' batting for SL has already having a issue with middle order batting strength, so they have decided to include Kula as well to bolster batting and to get something out of the wicket which was offering some bounce. A totally justifiable option! The fact that Kapugedara didn't perform with the bat was a non issue here. (It is actually a sub argument of point 1 above. SL did make a good score even without Kapugedara scoring, so how can it explain the loss ?) I think selectors were spot on on all those decisions. Selecting Thisara, Kula and Kapugedara and omiting Chamara Silva and Rangana Herath was OK.

3) Angelo Mathews got injured.
This again is a sub argument of point 1 above. SL did score enough even without Mathews! Unless someone is saying Matthews was one of our strike bowlers, this argument doesn't make much sense. For those who say Matthews could have made a difference as a fielder and a bowler. I simply do not agree. He may have done a little difference but not enough to change the result! Mathews was not among top Sri Lankan strike bowlers whom they depended on taking wickets.

4) Dew.
It set only in final 20 overs or so, the game was already starting to go Indian way by then. Besides, Sri Lankan spinners did perform well even with the dew against NZ in the group stages. We heard the stories those days about how they practiced with wet balls etc.. Once again, total absence of dew might have made some impact but not enough to change the result of the game.


Now then. What really made them loose then ? 275 on board, India were 31/2 and without Tendulkar and Sehvag. What really happened from there....

1) Choosing Randiv against Mendis.
To me this is it! Mendis was the most economical bowler in the Sri Lankan team throughout the tournament. He was considered a top strike bowler as well. One who can take wickets! Why dropping him and bringing Randiv whom wasn't even on the squad and haven't played a game for months is simply beyond me. I heard Arnold making the comment that India can pick Mendis well and so he was not in. This is poor reasoning in my mind. When was the last time India played against Mendis ? When we had his recent bowling figures to back him, (the real evidence) why worry over how Indians handled him in the past ? Mendis's recent figures suggested he has done his home work and improved as a bowler and was performing well in the competition. If that's not enough, what is ? If SL had Mendis bowling at Indians with all his variations on an assisting pitch with turn and bounce both, that would have been some sight to watch. Since there was a sizable score on board, Mendis could have bowled with lot of freedom, concentrating on wickets.

To back it further, look at following statistics of top SL bowlers, first figure is runs per wickets, second is runs given per over :
Murali 19.40, 4.09
Malinga 20.74, 5.54
Dilshan 15.75, 4.06
Mendis 19.14, 3.14

Mendis is not only the most economical, no other bowler is even near him on runs per over! As a short note, one also get the feeling whether Sri Lanka has under used Dilshan. He has the best average and second best economy rate, yet has bowled very few. Shouldn't they have used Dilshan more in the power-plays instead of Thisara and Nuwan Kulasekara ?


2) Bad fielding
This is the most obvious one and almost all have got this one right. SL fielding was not worthy for a international game let alone for a world cup final! A drop catch, a missed run out, several over throws, misses at the boundary line etc. This is one big reason why the good score 275 was made to look like a smaller total and a one which is hard to defend. Of course you can not defend even 300 if you are dropping catches and mis fielding resulting in additional runs!

3) Seemers (except the slinger) Giving it away.
This need some statistics to prove :
Muralitharan : 39 off 8 overs (rate under 5)
Randiv : 43 off 9 (rate under 5)
Malinga : Malinga 42 off 9 with two wickets (rate under 5)
Dilshan : 27 off 5 with a wicket (rate under 5.5)

We used to say spinner didn't deliver on that day, yet the chart shows they havn't done that badly either. True, they couldn't take wickets but yet they managed to keep the run rate checked. India needed a rate of 5.5, All the bowlers listed above managed that while taken 3 top wickets among them.

In total, Murali, Malinga, randiv and part timer Dilshan has bowled total of 31 overs between them and given away 151 runs for 3 wickets. Not only they have given below 5 runs per over, the 3 huge wickets they have got all came at an early stage of the match! making maximum impact. Malinga was also the one who had bowled most balls in power plays. Rest of specialized bowlers had to bowl 19 overs and only had to give something below 6.5 per over!

So we could afford to be little specific and say Kulasekara and Thisara Perera were the actual ones who failed with the bowl that day. (not to mention the missed catch) Between them they had bowled 18 and gave away 119 for just a single witket! Even that wicket came too late to make any impact on the match.

True, spinners didn't win Sri Lanka the match but they haven't lost it for them either. Rather than saying the entire SL bowling line up was a total disaster, I think we can safely say that only 2 bowlers had issues that night.

4) Indians batted really well.
This I think is the main reason above all the rest! specially M.S Dhoni batted brilliantly and easily smothered any Sri Lankan come back at it's inception. His brave decision to bat up in the order paid up nicely.

In summary, If SL had Mendis bowling at Indians, Sharp fielding instead of sloppy nut pickings and dozen loose deliveries less, we could have see a much tense struggle than that.

Congratulations India, you were the deserved winners!

Image of the Day - Final of the Final

Source : http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/image/509275.html

Note : There will not be a separate post for "Image of the Day" from today onwards. Instead, it will appear on top, left (yes, on that place where you today see the disappointed faces of SL team members)

Image of the Day - Some guys have all the luck !

No explanations needed!

From http://imgur.com/ibXFt

Can you name this singer ?

Can you name the singer in this cool video ?

If you can not, there will be few hints in comments in a while. (don't look!)

Image of the Day !

Cricket World Cup 2011 - Final round-up and predictions

In an earlier post, I made a disastrous attempt at predicting the results. Only 2 out of my 6 predictions came true. Then again, even cricket pundits couldn't foresaw AUS and SA both missing semi finals. So I guess not much harm a person like me missing them. However, that episode convinced me not to venture into cricket predicting business ever again.

So we wouldn't see any prediction in this post. (even if the title of the post says otherwise!)

India vs Sri Lanka at Mumbai on April 2nd 2011 !

That would be some match! 2 best cricket teams in the competition pitted against each other.

• Best spinners vs best batters against spinners!
• Bad fielders against even worse!
• Fanatic cricketing nation against another even bigger fanatic cricketing nation!

and the list goes on....

• Who would win the toss? apart from all the other things, the side winning toss would have much higher % of winning the match. Sri Lanka so far have lost the toss in both quarter finals and semi finals while India have won it in the last match. Will Sri Lanka lose the toss for the third consecutive time?
• Will Sachin finally get his 100th international 100?
• Will Sri Lankans be able to end Murali's last international match on a high?
  

We will see the answers for all those in 2 more days. (Now that I can not predict anymore....)


World Cup Holders :

Australia 4 (1992, 2000, 2003, 2007)
West Indies 2 (1980, 1984)
Sri Lanka 1 (1996)
Pakistan 1 (1988)
India 1 (1984)

Winner of Saturdays match will overtake West Indies in the above list of all time cup holders. More than that, they will be the kings in One day Internationals till 2015!

Some other (less obvious) insights :

If India wins, how many additional energy will be consumed over the next week? (if every Indian fan watches TV for additional hour, multiply that much of energy in few billions and so on.... has someone done those calculations ?)

How will the result impact Indian stock market ? Will the people be optimistic/pessimistic resulting in a huge change in a day?

What about the productivity loss on Monday if India wins the match on Saturday? (again, think about a person drinking and partying on Sunday and then spend the time in the office Monday chatting/celebrating with buddies. calculate the loss of productivity and multiply it by few billions!)

If Sri Lanka win, there will be a holiday declared on Monday for sure! Still it will not be sufficient to make a noticeable difference either way since Sri Lankans already having so many holidays per year.

Now to the all important bets and gambling business ...

How would the odds against one of these teams change on winning/loosing the toss on this particular ground ?

How will the odds change if India loses Sehvag early ?

All in all, it would be one heck of a match. So far the biggest cricket match against these 2 teams was that famous encounter in 1996 semi final. It was a pretty much one sided affair then.

This match certainly eclipses that one in terms of importance and looks like the same would hold true this time around in terms of competitiveness as well.

open for debates and thoughts ..... What do you think ?

Shaun Tait - New high in uncontrolled sledging in Cricket

Shaun Tait has announced his retirement from One Day Internationals today. On one hand we should feel sorry for the early loss of arguably the fastest bowler in the circuit today. On the other hand... well, I think he was also arguably the most uncontrolled and most uneducated sledger the game has seen in recent past.

This is the famous episode against Dilshan in the WCC match against SL. Look 0:40 onwards and one can even see clearly the words he has used at top of his voice without any provocation. In fact it was used as planned ploy to provoke the batsman. One could say it is game tactics while another may see it as a downright uncivilized behavior in what was called the gentleman's game.

Sledging of course is nothing new and Tait was not the only one involved, Infact SL captain Kumar Sangakkara was once known as "Most Educated Sledger" in the game. Sanga's tactic was different but aimed at the same objective : to unnerve the batsman. However, Sanga didn't mix it (or at least not recorded as) with bad language, threatening behavior or with hate. In fact, he did it with wits and control in a non-offensive manner, hence the title "Most Educated Sledger".

There are other versions as well, most of times fast bowlers are the most notorious rule breakers, Australian fast bowlers in particular. So much so that it has become a common sight to see a Australian bowler muttering something insulting to the batsman after a delivery. See Bret Lee for instance, specially in his very first over. One get the feeling sometimes that they require it to get charged up. Of non Australian bowlers Javagal Srinath and Nehra, comes to mind but there are many others involving almost every team.

Spinners are not totally innocent either. Shane Warne and Harbajahn Singh for instance. I think Shane Warne wasn't using bad language in as uncontrolled manner as Shaun Tait did. Matthew Hayden once described Harbajan as an 'obnoxious weed', wonder how would he categorize the countryman Tait in that same scale!

If sledging is so common, why are we talking about it so much ? I think with Tait in this world cup, things got nastier than the tolerable levels. Specially in the match AUS vs IND. Tait was seen repeatedly sending off bad mouthed insults at Tendulkar and other Indian batsman. One gets the feeling that the bowler was certainly not fit as a sane sportsman in any sport not just in the so called gentleman's game. Is this the example we should set for youngsters watching or is this the spirit of the game or the spirit of sport in general ? Qualities like respecting the opponents, appreciate good cricket from anyone when we see it, taking win/loss both gracefully etc are all seems old fashioned now and players are just after each others throats.

Let us just compare Sachin with Tait. One is just a novice (comparatively) even though he can bowl fast at times, other is a legend often compared with Sir Don, perhaps the greatest batsman we have seen in our times. What kind of feeling does one get when you see the inexperienced kid sledging away at a legend ? utter lack of respect, not just for a great name in cricket but for the game itself! This is why the behavior could be described as Most Uneducated Sledging. Uncontrolled hate should have no place in sport. If one is unable to get motivated by patriotism and belief in self or by the desire to perform and excel, and if one need to get physically abusive and beastly to charge himself up and perform, such individuals are not good ambassadors for the game or for their countries, and hence not good sportsman, to say the least.

ICC should enforce a code of conduct in here. We know tennis players get huge fines where they swear and get caught in the camera. In tennis, players actually swear out of self frustration and it usually directed on themselves rather than the opponents who are at the other end of the caught. If it is still punishable, how come Tait's behavior in the video (0:40 onwards) get unnoticed ? Whether his retirement has something to do with his behavioral problems, I don't know. However, ICC certainly has an issue to address here. It is clearly straightforward with today's technology to find, prove and fine the culprits and save the image of the game. Why should we let the game degraded into this level ? even in a world cup where everybody watch ?

It would be unfair if we don't mention the good players and teams in here. Very seldom that one see a NewZealander or a West indies fast bowler sledging at opponents. West Indies in particular has a huge culture and tradition of fast bowling. Malcolm Marshal, Courtney Walsh, Ambrose etc comes to mind. Those great players were exemplary in this regard. If such greats after archiving such great feats could still do it without barking away at the opponents and can still be modest enough to respect the opponents, what excuse can a novice like Tait have for failing to behave ? England, may have had problems in the past but the current team certainly seems not to have any problems of extra aggressive/abusive individuals. South Africans are another great example, for they too are famous for quick bowlers, those who have earned it by performance of their arms and not mouths that is.

One theory to explain the behavior may be found from psychology, players who have not mentally strong enough to cope with the challenges on field or does not have enough skills or self confidence to cope with the proceedings can easily resort into cheap tactics of over aggressive behaviors, while the true greats who can perform without that are doing so. May be that's why we don't see much bad behavior or worst type of sledging from great players. Take the highest wicker takers, take Murali, Can you remember a moment he was insulting the batsman or trying to unnerve by putting verbal pressure ? I may be biased here, but I certainly take pride in Sri Lankan bowlers who not only refrain from throwing bad words at batsman they even smile most of time. Lasith Malinga and Murali comes to mind.

Indian bowling greats are same. How often was Anil Kumble charging opposition batsman with foul words ? However Indian quick bowlers need to learn a lesson here and not follow the example of Australians. They can find better examples from home and else where, someone needs to tell that to Nehra for instance.

Cricket could be a great vehicle to promote friendship and understanding among nations. We should not let it degrade into a level that it become a vehicle to spread hate, rivalry and mis understanding among nations and cricket fans. If I were the Australian ambassador for India at the time of Tait swearing at Tendulkar on TV where millions of Indian fans watching, I wouldn't be enjoying the moment.

From Semi Finals - Into the Finals

ICC World Cricket Cup 2011 has reached it's climax. NZ and SL will fight it out tomorrow in Colombo while PAK and IND will slug it out in Mohali, day after.

SL is considered the favorite to win the first semi final comfortably, while IND is expected come through after a tense fight. My earlier predictions were proved mostly wrong. BD didn't come into quarters, AUS didn't come into Semis and SA didn't come into Semis either. With that kind of a success rate, I should not venture into the prediction business again!

It will be good for the Cricket to have a SL vs Ind final. After all, these were the two teams who were favorites at the start. Ranked number 2 and 3 in the world (top rank team, defending champ, AUS is now gone out of the tournament). In subcontinent conditions, I think most will agree that the best two teams are in the finals if that were to happen. Of course PAK supporters will disagree here. In fact I think they at least have 40% of chance to beat the strong Indian team.

If we omit unpredictables and special events (such as a brilliancy from a single player deciding the match, toss playing a vital role etc). India is the stronger and hence more likely team to win in the semi. However I'm still little doubtful on their ability to hold the nerve in a crunch situation mainly due to the fanatic nature and huge expectations of billions of Indian fans, PAK might see an opportunity there. This applies to SL vs NZ as well..... One certainly can not rule out an upset(s) in the semi's

Anyway, at the moment it looks like a Ind vs SL final. Who would win that one ? When you compare team strengths head to head, it is easy to figure that IND is stronger in batting line up while SL is stronger in bowling. SL was considered (once) as a better fielding side than India, but not anymore after the 4 easy catches they dropped in the quarter finals against England!

So it looks close!

India will have additional pressure in front of home crowd and SL will feel bit relaxed with the underdog tag. In a huge match like this where team strengths are more or less even. It will all come down into three factors.

1) Who will win the toss
2) Who will manage to keep their heads normal under pressure.
3) Individual brilliancies, players who can win matches alone. (Sachin, Sehvag, Yuvraj, Khan for India. Malinga, Murali, Mendis, Dilshan, Sanga for SL)

Whats' your pick ?

World Cup Cricket Quotes : Kamran Jokes

Few funny quotes users have sent to cricinfo live coverages. History : In the match Pak vs Nz, Pakistan lost sensationally due to many reasons. However, seems like people have picked Kamran Akmals (Pakistani wicket Keeper) dropped catches as the main reason.

I personally think Ross Taylors superb inning should be given it's due credit, then again he too was dropped by Kamran.... anyway, here's the list : (Names mentioned are those of viewers who has posted those to cricinfo)

Kabira: " I hope that Kamran's wife doesn't let him hold their babies! "

Arpan: "Behind every successful batsman, there is Kamran Akmal"

Brenton: "Kamran's favourite movie: Catch Me If You Can" And his favourite book? "The dropper in the rye"

Asif: "Elton Chigumbura's birthday on the day they play Pakistan .. Good signs for him .. only if Kamran plays as a keeper"

Hari: "Famous DON movie dialogue in Kamran's way "CATCH ko pakadna mushkil hi nahi, Namumkin hey". (someone who is good in Hindi, translate this one for us please )

Naila: Why is Umar Akmal the best batsman in the Akmal family? Because he got the most chance to bat in the back yard as Kamran Akmal kept dropping him."

And why did Adnan Akmal become a keeper? Since too many balls kept going into the bush behind the pitch when Kamran was keeping.

Ali: "After the last match Pakistan team management was found anxiously searching for the Birthdays of Aussies, if there is any on 19th March"

Paras: "Why can't Kamran Akmal be a Pakistani team selector? Because he will keep dropping everyone from the squad!"

vivek: "Kamran could be a good brand ambassador for Save water campaign. "Every drop counts"."

Abadit: "Why did Kamran Akmal have to walk back to the team hotel after the match? Because he failed to catch the bus! :)"

What is Kamran Akmal's favourite pick up line? 'Can I drop you somewhere?'

Note: added few more later. (April 3rd)
Geoffrey Boycott : "I could've stopped 'em better with my coat."

Ian Chappell : "If his batting was as good as Don Bradman's, he couldn't score enough runs to make up for what he costs them with his keeping."


and these are non related to Kamran...

Anas: "Looks like Sangakara has padded up ONLY for wicketkeeping today." (after sri lankan opening batsman having a long partnership going, Sanga is the man next to come, so is waiting all padded up)

Andy Zaltzman: "Team news: Zimbabwe's attempt to kidnap and use Lasith Malinga foiled just as they were trying to squeeze him into Tatenda Taibu's shirt..."

and my pick as the best...

Mickey Arthur : "The monkey's almost become a gorilla now and until we win an ICC event it's always going to be there I'm afraid."
(admits the pressure is piling up on South Africa to break their World Cup jinx)

World Cup is upon is!

2011 ICC World Cup. Who will win it this time ?

In the last presidential and general elections in SL, I had few predictions but didn't dare publishing them. Ironically, final results came very close to my predictions and I'm determined not to do the same mistake this time.

Besides, there is really nothing to loose by having a go and let the world know what your 'predictions' are. If they work, you may get some attention/recognition/glory/nothing at all or whatever. If not, you will be just like what you are right now. see, nothing to loose at all!

Many say India and Sri Lanka are the favorites. Really one doesn't need to be genius or an expert in cricket to say that, it's just obvious. India and Sri Lanka has to be among favorites, beside rankings and recent form, most of matches they play will be on their home grounds!

However, here is my prediction on India.

1) India will not be in Finals!

There, I said it...

Reasoning ? well, it's not a difficult one either if one look into history. India is not well known for putting up with the extra large pressure and expectations put up by billions of Indian fans. If one looks at their current team, it has many stalwarts at key places on whom the team relies upon. Tendulkar, Sehvag, Dhoni, Harbajan, Zaheer Khan, Yuvraj etc. These players were the backbone of many Indian teams before this tournament, unfortunately, they don't have a good track record of (while offering a mild apology to Tendulkar) putting up with the pressure put up by home crowd. There is simply more chance for the same things to happen again.....

On the record sheet and statistics India are on top. psychologically, billion fans and billion expectations (and the little bit of extra pressure generated by the knowledge that their houses will be stoned and burnt by the 'loving' fans in case of poor performance) would be too much for them.

hmm.. what about Sri Lanka ?

Champions in 96, semi finalists in 2003, finalists and runner up in 2007.. although that look good on paper, Sri Lanka has had a little problem of winning big matches since late 90's. apart from above mentioned 2003, 2007 campaigns, they lost another worldcup final (20-20 format, against Pakistan). I think Sri lanka will come to finals but I'm not putting my money on what will happen in the finals. It could be any man's game at that stage....

2) SL will be in Finals

Dark Horse : it is funny to see the Kangaroo as the dark horse. After all, AUS are the current champions and number one ranked, continuously champions since 2000! Still, not many are rating them among hot favorites considering their recent form and subcontinent conditions. However I think AUS are pretty underrated. If one compare the current squad with the winning squad in 2007, many faces are still there. Ponting, Clarke, Hussy, Lee, Watson are players who can win matches.

3) AUS will be in Semi Finals (at least, and a likely candidate for finals)

SA has acquired a reputation as a side haunted by bad luck in world cups. However, there is an end to everything, likewise this haunting too has a place it should eventually end. Mr Smith has a very competent side with him which recently managed to mauld India.

4) SA will be in Semi Finals. (at least, and a likely candidate for finals)

Many rate ENG as a top side in world cricket these days. Indeed their fast ascend in the ranking ladder and the recent results are very impressive. Yet, I'm not totally convinced. Their recent drubbing at the hands of out of form australians in australia reminded us of old England. More importantly I feel this England team is not tested enough in subcontinent pitches yet. (despite noting that they have a world class spinner in Swann) Also, most of their team members havnt proved them selves in the subcontinet. (yet)

5) ENG will not be in Semi Finals

One last prediction :

6) BA will be in Quarter finals! (this is the riskiest prediction yet and I think as the one which is most likely to backfire on me, yet I will say this) most probably, at the expense of WI.

Let's see how many of these will come true!

I guess most of you have already figured out which team I'm supporting my self.

Go Lions !